Emerging international issues may occur in 2024

2024 will be a year filled with important political, environmental, cultural and sports events, attracting the world's attention.

1. Will Donald Trump be re-elected as US president?

According to Reuters, Donald Trump's aides submitted documents for his 2024 presidential run on November 15 (US time), when the former Republican president met with his supporters. household at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

At this event, Mr. Trump officially announced that he would run for president of the United States in 2024.

"To make America great again, tonight I announce that I will run for president of the United States (in 2024)" - Mr. Trump said before a crowd of supporters on November 15.

However, there will be a long way to go before Mr. Trump is officially nominated by the Republican Party to run in the summer of 2024, with the first state contests more than a year away. .

Reuters news agency assessed that Trump's 2024 re-election announcement was made earlier than usual, even in a country famous for long presidential campaigns like the US.

The above move shows Mr. Trump's interest in preventing other potential candidates such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former Vice President Mike Pence from running for president in 2024.

Mr. Trump (76 years old) is seeking to become the second president in US history to serve non-consecutive terms, after Mr. Grover Cleveland (22nd and 24th US president).

Meanwhile, current President Joe Biden (79 years old) said last week that he plans to run for re-election. Maybe he will make a final decision early next year.

2. Will the Earth get hotter?

The progression of climate change will continue to be a central question for the future of all humanity. Will 2024 surpass 2023 to become the hottest year on record?. Experts commented to the Financial Times that this is absolutely true! 2023 is marked by so many extreme heat waves that it will almost certainly be the hottest year in 174 years of climate records, once the final numbers are in. But many scientists predict 2024 will be even hotter, as 2023 temperatures are already much higher, reinforced by the emergence of the naturally occurring El Niño climate pattern. This typically has the greatest influence on global temperatures after the peak. However this may not happen in January 2024.

3. Will President Putin be re-elected in the Russian presidential election?

Russians will go to the polls on March 17 in a presidential election that will likely result in President Vladimir Putin extending his 20-year rule over the country. The 71-year-old has ruled Russia since the turn of the century with four terms as President and a short period as Prime Minister.

4. Can the US economy have a "soft landing"?

Experts commented to the Financial Times that this possibility could happen in a short time. Inflation has dropped to levels that surprised even the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, and growth remains stronger than most economists expected. As consumer spending remains high and wage growth is (fairly) well contained, the soft landing could continue for several months. But don't bet on it lasting through 2024. There will be less financial support as Covid-era payments to households have been used up. Higher interest rates are causing bankruptcies, US debt worries are growing and geopolitical tensions are fracturing global trade. That could increase inflation and slow growth.

5. British politics has the ability to change prime ministers

Will Gillian Tett Keir Starmer become British Prime Minister?. Experts told the Financial Times that this is likely to happen. Although it's possible the UK election won't take place until January 2025.

Current chancellor Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party looks divided and exhausted. The number of seats the Labor opposition must win means the party could fall somewhere between a minority government and the overwhelming majority that opinion polls currently indicate. But it is extremely difficult to see how the prime minister can muster enough support to retain power.

6. Will China's economic growth slow to 3% or less?

Experts told the Financial Times that this is unlikely to happen. The quality of China's growth has certainly declined markedly in recent years. The real estate market, which contributes nearly 1/3 of gross domestic product, is freezing. Many local governments are in debt. Chinese consumers are hesitant. However, GDP growth in 2024 could still exceed 4% - supported by a series of debt relief packages, fiscal stimulus initiatives and other forms of official support. Advances in technology in the country will remain strong.

7. Will the US and the European Union (EU) continue to fund Ukraine's war?

Experts told the Financial Times that aid will continue. As Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia stalled in late 2023, military and financial support for Kyiv became a contentious issue on both sides of the Atlantic. The Biden administration is determined to maintain supplies: a deal with Republicans in Congress could include concessions on US border security in exchange for expanded aid to Ukraine . A bigger challenge will arise if Donald Trump returns to the presidency. Meanwhile, EU leaders should soon find a way to override Hungary's veto on a 50 billion euro financial support package in early 2024. However, Ukraine may still find it difficult to achieve military breakthrough, so there will be pressure to negotiate with Moscow.

8. Will Argentina dollarize its economy?

The answer determined by the Financial Times is no! Some would argue that long-suffering Argentines have dumped the peso: they save in greenbacks and trade assets informally in dollars. But despite his campaign pledges to dollarize the economy, Argentina's radical neo-liberal president, Javier Milei, instead announced a devaluation of the currency in measures his first economic law. Although Economy Minister Luis Caputo emphasized that the adoption of the US currency remains a long-term goal, it is unlikely to happen by 2024: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not enthusiastic and most Economists believe that the loss of economic sovereignty will outweigh the benefits.

9. Will renewable energy overtake coal in global electricity production?

This newspaper believes the answer will be no! Although the share of electricity generation from renewables is expected to outpace coal in the next few years, that is unlikely to happen in 2024. As China's demand for coal continues to grow rapidly in 2023 and while renewables are also growing rapidly – expected to account for around 90% of all new generation capacity globally – this will not be enough to overtake coal production next year, even if Western coal use declines. But the tipping point is not far away. More important for the climate is when China's coal demand finally reverses.
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